NBA futures: Checking in on Wembanyama and Holmgren in the ROY hunt

For starters, the answer is yes: The favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year in 2024 will absolutely change at least once before the end of the season. Yardbarker has already kept tabs on the two duking it out for favorite since early in the season.  And, at one point in December, The Oklahoman reported via FanDuel that Holmgren had briefly taken over as the favorite at -195 odds while Wembanyama lingered behind at +135.

It needs to be noted that their teams' records may have had an impact on those odds over the last couple of months. The first overall pick from the 2023 NBA Draft is playing for a historically bad San Antonio Spurs team, and even his impressive play wasn't enough to pull them out of an 18-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the first-rounder out of Gonzaga in 2022 plays on one of the best teams in the Western Conference which includes MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. (Who is listed at +400 at DK to win that end-of-season award, in case you were wondering.)

Which brings us to how Holmgren and Wembanyama's odds can be impacted down the stretch, especially with their teams playing each other multiple times in the second half of the season.

Heading into the second meeting of the season between the Thunder and the Spurs, Wembanyama was averaging 20.3 points and 10.0 rebounds compared to Holmgren's 17.1 points and 7.2 rebounds. However, they were pretty evenly matched on the stats sheet when the Thunder and Spurs matched in the in-season tournament in November, with Wembanyama going 4-15 from the field with eight points and 14 rebounds while Holmgren went 3-10 and 2-2 from three-point range and had seven rebounds. Wembanyama was one of San Antonio's best players that night, and OKC ran away with that game 123-87.

With a little over half of the season left and a couple of matchups between the Thunder and Spurs left on the schedule, it's worth it to keep a close eye on the Rookie of the Year odds. If the first part of the year is any indication, Holmgren and Wembanyama will be dueling to be the favorite for the rest of the season.